Binomial probability calculation tool for food exposures

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HOW THIS TOOL WORKS:

This Excel document calculates binomial probabilities using Foodbook values as a reference population (Canada, 2015) and flags exposures of interest* for further follow-up.  There are over 200 pre-filled food items with the ability to add more items as needed. When adding additional exposures, do not insert rows. Simply add them to the bottom of the current list in order to maintain formulas and formatting.

HOW TO USE THIS TOOL:

Enter the total number of cases that reported Yes (Y), Probably (P), No (N) or Don’t Know (DK) in columns C, D, E and F, respectively, to each of the food exposures listed. The tool is then designed to do everything else using the formulas! The formulas used for each calculated cell are as follows:

  • Column J calculates the percentage of cases who reported Yes (Y) and Probably (P) by dividing the sum of column C (Yes) and column D (Probably) by the sum of columns C (Yes), D (Probably), and E (No), and multiplying it my 100 to obtain a percentage.
  • Column G calculates the sum of column C (Yes) and column D (Probably)
  • Column H calculates the sum of  columns C (Yes), D (Probably), and E (No)
  • Column K is the data from the Public Health Agency of Canada’s Foodbook study.
  • Column L calculates the binomial probability of each food item using the reference data.
  • Column M determines whether each exposure of interest is significant: if the p-value is less than, or equal to 0.05 AND the proportion of individuals who reported consuming a food item is greater than the Reference, OR, if no reference value exists, than if the value is greater than or equal to 60%

TO NOTE:

  • The characters “#DIV/0!” appear in the table below when a number is divided by zero (0). It happens when you enter a formula like =21/0, or when a formula refers to a cell that has 0 or is blank.

Exposures of Interest are:

  • those with p-values ≤ 0.05 and where the observed proportion is greater than the expected (reference) population [i.e. %Y+P > %Reference],
  • OR, if there is no expected or reference value, then when the observed proportion (%Y+P) is greater than or equal to 60%

Control Data Reference:

 

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY CALCULATION TABLE:

# Food item Confirmed cases Sums Percentages (%) Foodbook Canada (n=10942) Binomial Probability
Yes Prob No DK Y+P Y+P+N Y/(Y+N) (Y+P)/(Y+P+N) p-value Exposure of interest [p-value ≤ 0.05 AND (%Y+P) > %Reference]
  Microsoft Excel Column designation C D E F G H I J K L M
2 Vegetables
3 Any tomatoes         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 72.9    
4 On a sandwich, burger or taco at restaurant or fast food establishment         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 20.4    
5 Roma/plum         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 25.7    
6 Hothouse         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 38.3    
7 Beefsteak         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.2    
8 Cherry or grape         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 32.8    
9 Any lettuce or leafy greens         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 82.4    
10 On a sandwich, burger or taco at restaurant or fast food establishment         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 24.3    
11 Iceberg         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 41.1    
12 Romaine         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 48.8    
13 Spinach         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 28.4    
14 Mesclun greens         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.0    
15 Pre-packaged lettuce or leafy     greens         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 46.1    
16 Cabbage (includes coleslaw)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 30.0    
17 Sprouts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.9    
18 Alfalfa sprouts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.4    
19 Bean sprouts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.7    
20 Cucumbers         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 62.9    
21 Bell peppers         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 63.6    
22 Hot peppers         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 19.4    
23 Celery         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 47.6    
24 Any carrots         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 81.4    
25 Carrots (not mini)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 68.9    
26 Mini carrots         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 35.9    
27 Peas (shelled or in pods)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 28.8    
28 Green or yellow beans         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 36.6    
29 Broccoli         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 55.5    
30 Cauliflower         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 33.0    
31 Leeks         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.2    
32 Fresh garlic (not powdered)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 48.9    
33 Mushrooms         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 50.0    
34 Zucchini         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 21.1    
35 Any onions         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 82.7    
36 White/yellow onions         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 73.5    
37 Red onions         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 32.2    
38 Green onions         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 34.0    
39 Vegetable juice         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.2    
40 HERBS & SPICES
41 Any fresh herbs         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 47.5    
42 Fresh Thai basil         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.2    
43 Fresh basil         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 17.8    
44 Fresh cilantro/coriander         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 17.6    
45 Fresh tarragon         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.2    
46 Fresh parsley         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 26.1    
47 Other fresh herbs         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 24.0    
48 Any spices         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 90.7    
49 Pepper (whole/ground, white, black, blended)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 84.8    
50 Curry powder         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 17.6    
51 Paprika         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 22.2    
52 Turmeric         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.4    
53 Other spices         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 48.8    
54 STORE-BOUGHT PREPARED SALADS & DIPS
55 Any store-bought prepared salad         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 14.5    
56 Green salad         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.0    
57 Coleslaw         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.8    
58 Potato salad         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.6    
59 Pasta salad         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.8    
60 Fruit salad/pre-cut fruit/fruit platter         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.1    
61 Salsa         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 21.7    
62 Hummus         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.4    
63 FRUITS
64 Apples         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 72.3    
65 Pears         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23.9    
66 Peaches         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 16.0    
67 Nectarines         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.6    
68 Apricots         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4.6    
69 Plums         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.7    
70 Citrus fruit         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 65.0    
71 Cherries         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 14.7    
72 Grapes         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 52.3    
73 Bananas         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 76.7    
74 Mangoes         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.7    
75 Papaya         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.1    
76 Kiwi         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.3    
77 Pomegranate         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.8    
78 Pineapple         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 30.0    
79 Avocado (includes guacamole)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 26.0    
80 Olives         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 27.2    
81 Any melon         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 39.7    
82 Cantaloupe         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23.5    
83 Honeydew         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.8    
84 Watermelon         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23.7    
85 Any berries         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 65.2    
86 Strawberries         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 49.6    
87 Raspberries         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 27.5    
88 Blueberries         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 31.3    
89 Blackberries         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 10.5    
90 Unpasteurized fruit juice         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.8    
91 Fruit smoothies         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 19.8    
92 NUTS & SEEDS
93 Peanut butter         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 55.0    
94 Other nut paste, butter or spread         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.3    
95 Any nuts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 65.4    
96 Peanuts (not including peanut butter)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 33.6    
97 Almonds         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 41.0    
98 Walnuts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.5    
99 Hazelnuts (Filberts)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 10.1    
100 Cashews         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 26.8    
101 Pecans         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.9    
102 Sunflower seeds         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.3    
103 Sesame seeds         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 17.1    
104 Tahini, halva or other products made from sesame seeds         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6.8    
105 BEEF
106 Any beef (not including deli-meat)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 78.4    
107 Raw beef         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.8    
108 Steak         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 31.1    
109 Stewing beef         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.8    
110 Other whole-cut beef products         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 20.0    
111 Any ground beef         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 63.4    
112 Any hamburgers         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 39.1    
113 Home-made         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 21.9    
114 Store-bought frozen beef patties         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.4    
115 From a restaurant or fast food establishment         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 16.1    
116 Any other ground beef         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 44.3    
117 Ground beef consumed raw or undercooked         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.7    
118 PORK
119 Any pork         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 55.1    
120 Ham (not including deli-meat)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.0    
121 Bacon         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 27.2    
122 Ground pork         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.3    
123 Pork pieces or parts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 33.7    
124 POULTRY
125 Any poultry         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 87.6    
126 Any chicken (not including deli-meat)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 85.6    
127 Store-bought breaded chicken         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 16.5    
128 Ground chicken         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5.3    
129 Chicken pieces or parts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 70.0    
130 Chicken from a restaurant or fast food establishment         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 21.0    
131 Any turkey (not including deli-meat)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 11.8    
132 Turkey bacon         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.5    
133 Ground turkey         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.5    
134 Turkey pieces or parts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.3    
135 Other poultry (not including deli-meat)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.3    
136 DELI-MEAT
137 Any deli-meat/cold cuts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 49.3    
138   Chicken         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.2    
139   Turkey         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.4    
140   Ham         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 28.2    
141   Beef         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.3    
142   Bologna         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.5    
143   Salami         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 11.3    
144   Pepperoni         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.7    
145   Kielbasa         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.9    
146 OTHER MEAT / ANIMAL PRODUCTS
147 Hot dogs         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 26.9    
148 Sausage         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 30.8    
149 Dried meat products         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.4    
150 Pâté/meat spread         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5.3    
151 Lamb         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5.3    
152 Veal         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4.8    
153 Goat         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.4    
154 Organ meats or offal         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4.2    
155 Shawarma or donair         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.4    
156 FISH & SEAFOOD
157 Any fish         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 55.6    
158 Smoked fish         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.4    
159 Raw fish         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6.8    
160 Any shellfish         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 16.8    
161 Mussels         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.0    
162 Clams         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.1    
163 Scallops         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.5    
164 Shrimp/prawns         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 14.1    
165 Crab         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.9    
166 Lobster         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.4    
167 Any oysters         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.0    
168 Raw oysters         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.4    
169 EGGS
170 Any eggs         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 80.7    
171 Raw or undercooked eggs         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.0    
172 DAIRY / DAIRY SUBSTITUTES
173 Any dairy products (not including cheese)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 84.6    
174 Pasteurized dairy milk         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 74.7    
175 Unpasteurized dairy milk (not including cheese)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.8    
176 Powdered milk product         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.6    
177 Whipped/whipping cream         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.0    
178 Sour cream         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23.4    
179 Ice cream/gelato         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 42.0    
180 Yogurt         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 58.2    
181 Any dairy substitutes or non-dairy milk         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.9    
182 CHEESE
183 Any cheese         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 88.8    
184 Cheddar         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 72.6    
185 Mozzarella         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 47.6    
186 Parmesan         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 40.1    
187 Gouda         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.0    
188 Feta         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 19.0    
189 Other cheeses sold as blocks/wheels         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 25.5    
190 Brie, camembert or other soft cheese         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.5    
191 Blue-veined cheese         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5.6    
192 Cottage, ricotta or other fresh cheese         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.1    
193 Goat/sheep milk cheese         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.6    
194 Processed cheese         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 36.1    
195 Any cheese made with unpasteurized milk         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.6    
196 FROZEN FOODS
197 Frozen vegetables         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 38.7    
198 Any frozen fruit         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 24.2    
199 Frozen berries         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 21.3    
200 Frozen fruit (not including berries)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.4    
201 Frozen pizza         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 20.1    
202 Frozen pot pies         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.6    
203 Frozen meals in a bag or box         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.9    
204 Frozen snack foods/appetizers         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6.1    
205 DRIED, PROCESSED & OTHER
206 Dried fruit         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 33.2    
207 Granola bars, power bars, or other protein bars         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 37.5    
208 Chips or pretzels         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 53.9    
209 Chocolate or chocolate-containing candy         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 63.9    
210 Cold breakfast cereal         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 54.3    
211 Hot breakfast cereal         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 28.5    
212 Tofu         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.5    
213 Dietary or nutritional supplement         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 28.2    
214 ETHNIC FOODS & FAST FOODS
215 Asian style foods         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 27.4    
216 Indian style foods         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.5    
217 Mexican style foods         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 16.7    
218 Meal from a fast food restaurant         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 53.6    
219 BABY FOODS
220 Any baby formula         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23.1    
221 Liquid         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 10.9    
222 Powder         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.5    
223 Store-bought pureed baby food         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 20.5    
224 Infant/toddler cereal         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 22.9    
225 WATER
226 Primary drinking water source                      
227 Municipal water         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 68.5    
228 Private well         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 10.8    
229 Store-bought bottled water         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.8    
230 Raw water consumption         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.6    
231 Swim or go into any water         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.1    
232 Swim or go into any natural water         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4.0    
233 Ocean         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.2    
234 Lake         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.6    
235 River         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.8    
236 Natural hot spring         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.3    
237 Pool         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9.7    
238 Hot tub         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.4    
239 Recreational waterpark         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.6    
240 Swim or go into a swimming facility in the last 4 weeks         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 19.3    
241 ANIMAL CONTACT
242 Any contact with animals, animal waste, habitat or food         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 63.4    
243 Cat         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 31.9    
244 Dog         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 43.3    
245 Bird         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.6    
246 Reptile         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.6    
247 Amphibian         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.2    
248 Rodent or pocket pet         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.4    
249 Fish or aquarium         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4.5    
250 Cow         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.8    
251 Goat, sheep or lamb         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.1    
252 Horse         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.4    
253 Pig         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.2    
254 Poultry/baby poultry         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.8    
255 Handled any dry pet food         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 43.0    
256 Handled any canned/wet pet food         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.1    
257 Handled any raw pet food (store-bought or home-made)         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.8    
258 Handled any treats derived from animal parts         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.3    
259 Handled any processed animal treats         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23.5    
260 Handled any rodents/insects for reptiles         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.3    
261 Handled any farm animal/livestock feed         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.8    
262 Visited any petting zoo         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.1    
263 Visited any farm or barn         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6.9    
264 Visited any agricultural fair         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.3    
265 Visited any pet store         0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4.5    

 

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