Proposal for deactivating the OICC and declaring the outbreak over

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[Outbreak title]

Proposal for deactivating the OICC and declaring the outbreak over

The OICC will be deactivated and the outbreak declared over based on the following rationale:

 

Deactivating the OICC

[Lead agency] proposes that the OICC be deactivated on [date]. [Lead agency] will continue to monitor the situation and if new information suggests that there is an on-going risk the proposed timelines will be reassessed and revised as needed. Should the situation warrant it, the OICC can be reopened following discussion with the OICC members.

The OICC deactivation is proposed for the following reasons:

 [Consider and include the following, as appropriate]

  • As per the FIORP, there is consensus among the OICC members that all avenues of investigation have been exhausted.
  • All of the investigation information has been shared and discussed among OICC members.
  • The epidemiological investigations for all cases are complete.
  • CFIA has indicated that the traceback investigation is complete and there is no additional information expected at this time.

 

Declaring the outbreak over [consider using a figure to illustrate the rationale, rather than or in addition to text]

[Lead agency] proposes that the outbreak be declared over on [date] based on the following rationale:

To determine when the outbreak can be declared over, consider three criteria (1) Identify the expected baseline levels (2) Identify the last time that individuals may have been exposed to the outbreak source, (3) Allow enough time to pass to allow individuals to become ill and be reported to public health authorities.

[Provide analysis based on above criteria / additional bullets may be required]

  • Criterion 1: The expected baseline incidence for PFGE pattern [X] is [X cases per period of time (e.g., year, month, etc.)]. [Describe the period of time for which the number of cases reported has returned to baseline.]
  • Criterion 2: The most recent date of illness onset is [date] or The date of product recall, [date], is considered to be the last time individuals may have been exposed to the implicated source.
  • Criterion 3: The maximum incubation period of [PATHOGEN] infection is [X] days and the [XXth]* percentile in reporting delay observed in this outbreak is [X] [*use the 75th to 100th percentile]
  • Calculation: [Criterion 2 date] + [Criterion 3 reporting delay] = [Date to declare the outbreak over]
  • Therefore this outbreak can be declared over on [date].

[Insert figure which should include the outbreak epidemic curve, the maximum incubation period, the reporting delay and references to the three criteria, example below.]

The epidemiologic curve for the case study, extended to September 3rd. Cases appear from June 28 through to July 19. A grey box covers the dates from August 3 to August 13, indicating the maximum incubation period for E.coli. Another grey box spans August 14 through to September 2, to reflect the 90th percentile in reporting delays for cases in this outbreak. Therefore, the outbreak can be declared over on September 2.