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[EVENT ID] Event title

Proposal for declaring the outbreak over

DATE

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PHAC-OMD proposes that the outbreak be declared over on [DATE] based on the following rationale:

Criterion 1: The number of outbreak cases being reported to public health authorities has returned to baseline levels.

The expected baseline incidence of cases based on surveillance data prior to the outbreak and as defined by the outbreak case definition is [N].

Criterion 2: The last time that individuals may have been exposed to the implicated source has been identified or estimated.

The last time that individual(s) may have been exposed to the outbreak source is estimated using [LAST EXPOSURE ESTIMATE] (e.g. hazard removal (i.e. restaurant closure, food recall); illness onset; or return to baseline) is [DATE].

Criterion 3: Sufficient time has lapsed for potentially exposed individuals to become ill and be reported to investigating public health authorities.

The maximum incubation period of [PATHOGEN] infection is [X] days and the [XXth] percentile in reporting delay observed in this outbreak is [Y] days.

PHAC proposes to declare the outbreak over after the maximum incubation period ([X] days) and the [XX^th] percentile in reporting delay ([Y] days) have elapsed since the last expected exposure on [DATE]. Therefore, if no additional cases are identified the outbreak would be declared over on [OVER DATE].    

Definitions

N: cases per period of time (e.g. month, year etc.)

LAST EXPOSURE ESTIMATE: last exposure to the outbreak source estimated using date of hazard elimination, most recent illness onset, or return to baseline

DATE: date of last exposure estimate

X: maximum incubation period of the pathogen

Y: XX^th percentile reporting delay as observed in the outbreak

OVER DATE: the date the outbreak is declared over based on the three criteria